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The talented Mr. Greenspan

salon.com >
News Jan.
10, 2000
URL:
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2000/01/10/greenspan
The Federal
Reserve chairman has resisted slowing the economy while waiting for
his reappointment, but will he put the brakes on now?
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By Ian
Williams
There's
an old French fable about the fly who thinks he's the force making
the cart move, when all he's doing is buzzing around the muzzle of
the cart horse. In the case of Alan Greenspan, it is an illusion
shared by all too many as he begins his fourth term as chairman of
the Federal Reserve Bank.
What this particular fly does have
is the ability to put a stick in the spokes of
the economy.
To the extent that he refrains from doing so, we can breathe a sigh
of relief. Against all his stated philosophy, he has not raised
interest rates to recession-rousing levels since President Clinton
last reappointed him. However, it remains to be seen whether he can
restrain himself.
It may be shocking to suggest that
Greenspan weighed the chances of his reappointment against the
recessionary consequences of a hefty hike in interest rates -- which
would of course threaten
Al Gore's
chances of succeeding his boss in the White House. But now that
Greenspan has the job in the bag, his true colors can come glooming
through, and he may well give interest rates -- and the Gore
campaign -- a hard time later this year. Indeed the big hike may
well come when the Open Market Committee meets on Feb. 1.
After all, he has done it before. After
President Bush reappointed him to a second term, he repaid his
benefactor with the recession, whose tail end in 1992 practically
ensured Clinton's election. (Remember, "It's the economy, Stupid!"?
It should have read "It's Alan Greenspan, Stupid!"). He raised
interest rates and brought about the recession because unemployment
had dropped to 5.5 percent, which meant that it was hovering on the
edge of the NAIR, the non-accelerating inflation rate of
unemployment.
For many years, the Fed's policy has been
to strive to maintain an unemployment rate around or over 6 percent,
as a human sacrifice to the NAIR. The theory is that if unemployment
dips below this, then workers get uppity and ask for more money,
which is ipso-facto inflationary. Almost the only economic
regulatory power the federal government has is the power to adjust
interest rates.
Under the Humphrey-Hawkins Act, the Federal
Reserve was given the power to do just that in order to control
unemployment, as well as inflation. Humphrey-Hawkins said the Fed
should lower its target unemployment rate to 4 percent, but that law
was soon ignored in favor of the more iron laws of voodoo economics
and the NAIR.
Certainly Greenspan has never seemed to
believe that reducing unemployment was part of his job description,
and no one in Congress is too concerned about it, either. In fact,
the Fed's whole purpose in periodically raising interest rates when
unemployment drops is to make businesses lay off workers, so that
those who remain will not ask for more money. (Of course those who
are laid off will be pilloried for being lazy and will have their
welfare payments cut off.)
For some reason, Wall Street bonuses and
corporate stock options are not considered inflationary, even though
they have been rocketing. Meanwhile, for the rest of us, hourly
earnings are just now reaching where they were in 1986, and have
never regained their 1973 peak in constant dollars, according to the
Bureau of Labor Statistics. That puts the economic "boom" of the
last eight years in class perspective.
Greenspan is quite clear about his contempt
for the interests of employees. For example, he opposes increasing
the minimum wage. Last year he told the Senate: "My own preference
would be to lower it and, in fact, eliminate it because I think that
it does more damage than good." This is Ayn Rand speaking, not Adam
Smith.
Smith, the much misunderstood father of
market economics, was quite clear on the relationship between
productivity and higher salaries, saying "The liberal reward of
labour .. increases the industry of the common people ... Where
wages are high ... we shall always find the workmen more active,
diligent, and expeditious than where they are low."
In contrast to that measured and wise view,
whenever earnings look like they are rising, Greenspan and the
Federal Reserve throw on the brakes. But last year, the iron law of
NAIR, which required a 6 percent unemployment rate, was broken, when
the rate dropped to 4 percent. Yet Greenspan never admitted the Fed
had been operating on fetishistic and faulty voodoo economics all
along.
One time Greenspan was right was in 1996,
when he attributed the rocketing Dow to the "irrational exuberance"
of investors. But rather than spoil Clinton's party while his future
reemployment pended, he has now decided that all those computers
make exuberance more rational than he first thought.
To listen to Wall Street, you'd think that
Greenspan had a long record of omniscience. As one would expect from
someone brought into government by Richard Nixon and first appointed
Fed chair by Ronald Reagan, he is often wrong. But the good that he
does always lives on while the foul-ups are interred with the dry
bones of history. For example, he is sometimes credited with the
quick recovery from the 1987 crash, though it was the Fed that
caused it. Within a few months of taking over that year Greenspan
raised interest rates three times in two months and precipitated the
collapse of the Dow by 25 percent.
He takes credit for the economic growth of
the Clinton era, but avoids blame for the recession he engineered
just before. Those who extol his brilliance and integrity overlook
his paid employment in support of Charles Keating and S&L
deregulation which led to the most massive financial rip-off in
history, paid for by the taxpayers.
Only in America could so much power and
prestige be given to someone who was a major fan of Ayn Rand and her
cult of "Objectivism," which she summed up as "enlightened
selfishness." For those who never read Rand, be warned that "Atlas
Shrugged" reads like a novelization of Mein Kampf by Barbara
Cartland. She depicts bodice-ripping capitalist supermen who obtain
fanatical loyalty from their workers, and then leave them in the
lurch in search of a capitalist paradise where everything has a
price -- and it's in gold.
Rand's philosophy was based on deep burning
hatred of Roosevelt's New Deal, which of course put America back to
work after the Depression. It was also based on the idea that
brilliant and enlightened individuals (like for example, Rand and
Greenspan) did not have to worry about mere elected but corrupt
elites to achieve their ends. For Objectivists like Greenspan no
price (if paid by others) is too much to stop inflation.
For example, reportedly he is a staunch
atheist, but that did not stop him taking an oath on the Talmud
(held by his aged mum) to become chairman of Nixon's Council of
Economic Advisors, while his prophetess Ayn Rand beamed away in the
front row.
Apart from his quasi-cultist past, the main
problem with Greenspan is that he has too much power based on his
alleged powers of economic prediction. The problem with the alleged
science of economics, especially the esoteric branch practiced by
Greenspan, is that not only is it dismal -- in the sense of being
mind-bogglingly boring -- it is also dismal as science. It pretends
to be able to forecast the future, but always fails to do so. On the
other hand, like a good pathologist it is very good at post-mortem
explanations for what killed the patient.
Greenspan's reputation is such that he can
disagree with elected officials, but no one in Washington can
contradict him, in case it sends the wrong messages to Wall Street,
which has irrational loyalty to the man who has actually stunted the
growth of the economy throughout the last decade, with his frequent
interest-rate hikes that throw workers out of jobs.
But even if he had been right more often,
the power Greenspan has usurped has led to a complete distortion of
the markets. Adam Smith's invisible hand assumes that lots of people
making individual decisions combine -- mysteriously, maybe even
inadvertently, but reliably -- to foster the common good.
Greenspan's unrivalled power has led the "market" to become a sort
of off-track betting operation in which investors try to second
guess his intentions and predictions.
So news that the economy is doing well,
earnings are rising, and unemployment falling can trigger a wave of
selling, as investors assume that Grinchspan will raise interest
rates to stop it. His every utterance is scrutinized for
significance about his intentions.
So is it his charismatic personality?
Although at 73 he has recently remarried, (NBC's Andrea Mitchell) no
one has ever accused him of personal charm, nor even witty
conversation. His ex-wife reported his closet contained a row of
identical and uninspiring blue suits. Even his best friends describe
his circumlocutions as "opaque," "soporific," or "muddled." This is
not some form of verbal dyslexia but a conscious effort. As he said
in 1995, "I spend a substantial amount of my time endeavoring to
fend off questions, and worry terribly that I might end up being too
clear."
The secret of his success is his ability to
match the arcane but ultimately content-free arcane jargon of the
alchemist to the gullibility of the customers. No one wants to admit
that they don't know what he's talking about.
No matter: All of America's business
leaders love him the way they used to hate FDR and every bit as
irrationally. If he plunges the economy into recession, it will not
do them much good at all. On the other hand they will be better
placed than most of us to withstand it.
salon.com |
Jan. 10, 2000
About the writer
Ian Williams is the United Nations correspondent for the Nation.
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